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Of those companies, 73.6% have beaten earnings expectations, FactSet data shows. Investment banks doing well, BofA not so much The major banks that posted results this week — Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley and Bank of America — beat earnings expectations. Bank of America shares fell more than 3% despite the company beating on both top and bottom lines. Mixed earnings picture Although nearly three-quarters of the reported earnings so far have topped expectations, the broader earnings picture is more muddled. The blended earnings growth rate, which considers the reports already out and the estimates from those still pending, sits at just 0.16%.
Persons: — Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Alastair Borthwick, Wells, Mike Mayo, Goliath, Mayo, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo's Mayo, Goldman, Ebrahim Poonawala, cyberattack, George Hill, Doug Anmuth, Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Canaccord Genuity, Chris Harvey Organizations: Investment, Bank of America —, Bank of America, Bank of America's, JPMorgan, Wells, of America, Deutsche, Netflix, NFLX's, Revenue, Microsoft, Exxon Mobil
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFundamentals for the big banks are pretty strong, says BofA's PoonawalaEbrahim Poonawala, Band of America Securities head of North American banks research, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss if he saw any concerns from bank earnings, what the bank stocks are reacting to, and more.
Persons: BofA's Poonawala Ebrahim Poonawala Organizations: of America Securities
The banking giant is expected to report earnings of $4.15 per share and $41.84 billion in revenue, according to LSEG. Many analysts also anticipate an upward revision to net interest income guidance, with the firm already forecasting $90 billion for the full year. Graseck views JPMorgan as one of the best-positioned stocks for upward net interest income revisions, also highlighting its significant excess capital relative to others within the firm's coverage. What else to watch If not during earnings, this upward guidance adjustment to net interest income could occur at JPMorgan's investor day in May, she said. Another key figure some analysts are watching is earnings from First Republic, which the company took over in May 2023 .
Persons: JPM, Piper Sandler's Scott Siefers, Morgan Stanley's Betsy Graseck, Graseck, Goldman Sachs, Richard Ramsden, America's Ebrahim Poonawala, Erika Najarian, NII, Wells, Mike Mayo, Ramsden Organizations: JPMorgan, Wall Street, Management, Bank, America's, First Locations: buybacks, First Republic, Republic
As the market begins a new quarter, Bank of America refreshed its list of top picks for the coming months. Here are some of the firm's top picks for the second quarter: Big Tech underperformer Alphabet is one of Bank of America's top 10 picks for the new quarter. The stock added just 8% in the first quarter of 2024 as a series of AI-related blunders bruised investor sentiment. SPOT YTD mountain Spotify shares in 2024 One of the financial stocks featured in Bank of America's top picks list was Citigroup . "A positive inflection in volumes should support low valuation and potentially drive rotation from other consumer staples sub-sectors (Beverages/Household Personal Care) as investors chase underperforming food names," wrote analyst Bryan Spillane.
Persons: Justin Post, Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Ebrahim Poonawala, Kraft Heinz, Bryan Spillane Organizations: Bank of America, Nasdaq, Bank of America's, Microsoft, Google, 2Q, Spotify, Citigroup, Assistance Locations: Thursday's
Plus, falling interest rates and continued economic growth would be tailwinds. The aforementioned catalysts are still in place — including interest rate cuts, as investors discovered a day earlier. Until then, the firm believes bank stocks can outperform into the first-quarter earnings season. 6 regional bank stocks worth buyingThe continued rally in financials will be powered in large part by regional banks, BofA believes. "We see the capital markets momentum continuing into 2025, which should drive investor interest in both stocks," Poonawala wrote.
Persons: Financials, Ebrahim Poonawala, Poonawala, BofA, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Charlie Scharf, Jamie Dimon Organizations: of America, Business, Federal Reserve, Investors, Bank of America, First Bancorp, FNB Corp, Truist, US Bancorp, Western Alliance, JPMorgan, Wall, titans Locations: financials, Wells Fargo
Shares of Nvidia are red hot, but Bank of America thinks there's a slew of other stocks that investors should consider. They include: Super Micro Computer, Kroger, Burlington, JPMorgan Chase and TJX Companies. Kroger Analyst Robert Ohmes said Kroger is firing on all cylinders even as grocery prices remain high. And like Kroger, share gains are aplenty as new store openings continue coming online. Given its turnaround momentum and ongoing favorable off-price retail fundamentals, Burlington is well positioned for outperformance, in our view."
Persons: there's, JPMorgan Chase, Robert Ohmes, Kroger, Ohmes, Lorraine Hutchinson, Hutchinson, Ebrahim Poonawala, Jamie Dimon, Poonawala, BofA, TJX, BURL Organizations: Nvidia, Bank of America, CNBC, Computer, Kroger, JPMorgan, TJX Companies, Burlington, JPMorgan Chase, Artificial Intelligence Locations: Burlington
The danger of higher rates for longer following the latest hot inflation reading raises the "downside risk" for regional banks, according to Bank of America. "Fewer and later Fed rate cuts pose downside risk to bank stocks," analyst Ebrahim Poonawala wrote in a Tuesday note. "We are especially concerned about the failure of the broader market to project the trajectory of interest rates – a consistent theme since the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022." "We worry about the risk from no rate cuts in 2024 and a far more elevated level of interest rates across the UST yield curve," Poonawala added. Net interest margin is the difference between the interest banks earn on loans and pay on deposits.
Persons: Ebrahim Poonawala, Poonawala, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Federal, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, UST, Regional Banking, Regional Banking ETF, JPMorgan, BNY, U.S . Bancorp, First Bancorp Locations: Silicon, U.S, Puerto Rico
Elevated risks for U.S. banks: Here's what you need to know
  + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailElevated risks for U.S. banks: Here's what you need to knowEbrahim Poonawala, head of North American banks research at BofA Securities, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the risks to U.S. banks and headwinds the sector faces.
Persons: Ebrahim Poonawala Organizations: BofA Securities
While high interest rates have boosted the banks' lending margins, residential mortgages, auto loans and commercial real estate loans have slowed as consumers and businesses pulled back. With interest rates forecast to remain high, renewal of the mortgages will squeeze household budgets. Banks are also rethinking lending to industries sensitive to high interest rates, from condo development to office space. "We want to make sure we have some kind of confidence when a project is going to go ahead," said Victoria Girardo, Canadian Western Bank's (CWB.TO) VP in real estate lending. "That is creating liquidity issues across the real estate developer space.
Persons: Carlos Osorio, Ebrahim Poonawala, Mike Rizvanovic, Rizvanovic, Banks, Victoria Girardo, Nigel D'Souza, Nivedita Balu, Mark Porter Organizations: Bank of Montreal, REUTERS, Rights TORONTO, U.S, National Bank, Bank, Veritas Investment Research, Thomson Locations: Toronto , Ontario, Canada, Toronto
It's time to pick positions in bank stocks heading into year end as peak rates could be a "mini clearing event" for the sector, according to Bank of America. "While we are careful to not [get] carried away, peak interest rates do have potential to serve as a mini clearing event for bank stocks," BofA's Ebrahim Poonawala wrote in a Sunday note. Regional banks are down by 27% this year, and have continued to face intense scrutiny due to their exposure to commercial real estate. "Best case, peak rates could mark near term bottom in bank stocks vs. S & P." To be sure, there remain issues in the sector. Bank stocks are highly tied to the broader economy and their loans could take a hit if the U.S. falls into a recession.
Persons: BofA's Ebrahim Poonawala, JPMorgan Chase, KRE, Poonawala, NIM, it's, Bryn Talkington, Talkington, Morgan Stanley, Bill Gross, Gross Organizations: Bank of America, Bank, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Regional Banking, P Bank, Federal Reserve, Capital Management, West Bancorp, Truist Financial, Citizens, Apple Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S
The executive leadership team is viewed as a well-oiled machine with Morgan Stanley thriving compared to its megabank peers. Leaving Morgan Stanley would require going outside their comfort zone. Employees from these executives' righthand men and rank-and-file Morgan Stanley staffers may not welcome these changes. "You would expect everyone's guard to be raised at Morgan Stanley to monitor employee reaction and manage at least the best performers." Do you work for Morgan Stanley?
Persons: Morgan Stanley's James Gorman, Ted Pick, Dan Simkowitz, Andy Saperstein, Gorman, Glenn Shorr, Glenn Schorr, It's, Mike Mayo, they've, Mayo, Morgan Stanley, Pick's anointment, Pick, fides, Morgan, America's Ebrahim Poonawala, Poonwala, Stephen Biggar, Simkowitz, Saperstein, Let's, Schorr, Hayley Cuccinello Organizations: America's, Mitsubishi, Financial Times, Management Locations: Wells Fargo, Saperstein, Mayo, Simkowitz, hcuccinello@insider.com
Analysts expect yet another lackluster quarter for Goldman Sachs , but are not ready to turn away from the stock. Analysts expect earnings per share of $5.31 and net revenue of nearly $11.19 billion, according to estimates from LSEG. "We believe GS is well positioned to benefit from positive secular capital markets related trends (trading benefiting from volatile markets). Jefferies similarly expects a muted quarter for Goldman, forecasting $5.09 per share in third-quarter earnings. The deal will result in a 19 cents per share reduction to the bank's third-quarter earnings, Goldman said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jason Goldberg, Goldberg, Jefferies, Daniel Fannon, Fannon, Ebrahim Poonawala, Wells, Mike Mayo, Mayo Organizations: Goldman, Bank of America, Downside, Sixth Locations: LSEG, New York, Goldman Sachs, Friday's, Wells
Banks have suffered as interest rates linger at higher levels for longer, making the cost of borrowing money more expensive. Investors such as Neuberger Berman's Steve Eisman aren't optimistic about the sector either heading into earnings season due to higher capital requirements . Earnings per share have been growing at least 5% on average a year for the past three years, showing earnings consistency. Average analyst consensus forecasts call for nearly 13% upside from Wednesday's $122.74 close. JPMorgan also made the list, with the average analyst price target calling for close to 16% upside.
Persons: Banks, Neuberger, Steve Eisman, KeyCorp, Piper Sandler, Ebrahim Poonawala Organizations: CNBC Pro, PNC, Bank of America, JPMorgan Locations: Cleveland, Pittsburgh
"This quarter is all about higher interest rates for longer," said Mike Mayo, an analyst at Wells Fargo. "There is a constructive environment, and investment banking fees tend to be higher through the end of the year," said Jason Goldberg, a banking analyst at Barclays. Despite the renewed optimism, investment banking activity remains depressed. As rates rise, bond prices fall, representing losses on paper that would be realized if the banks sold the bonds. More broadly, "we're back into this environment where investors think interest rates are going to remain higher for longer," he said.
Persons: JP Morgan Chase, Mike Segar, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley's, Mike Mayo, Ebrahim Poonawala, Jason Goldberg, Richard Ramsden, James Demmert, Ramsden, Tatiana Bautzer, Saeed Azhar, Lananh Nguyen, Nick Zieminski 私 Organizations: JP, Co, REUTERS, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Wall Street, SoftBank's Arm Holdings, Barclays, U.S, Treasury, Valley Bank, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Reuters, Street Research Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, dealmaking, Israel, Bengaluru
The recent sharp rise in interest rates has created a buying opportunity in some financial stocks, according to Bank of America. Surging bond yields have the potential to slow the U.S. economy and damage the financial sector, weighing on bank stocks. But Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said in a note to clients Wednesday that some stocks have fallen far enough that investors who can stomach the volatility should turn buyers. "We see it as almost impossible in the near term for bank stocks to disconnect with the price action in [U.S. Treasury] yields. The stocks Bank of America highlighted as trading at this attractive level include Wells Fargo , Goldman Sachs , First Horizon and East West .
Persons: Ebrahim Poonawala, Goldman Sachs, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, U.S . Treasury Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo
"In addition to gaining lending market share, management [is] laser focused on boosting credit card offerings, turning around the wealth management business and growing investment banking revenues," he said. "We think Meta is best positioned vs peers to capitalize on new spend in the industry given ramping Reels and Messaging monetization, easy comps, and increasing Advantage+ adoption," he said. Blackrock "Best positioned for rebalancings. ... We think Meta is best positioned vs peers to capitalize on new spend in the industry given ramping Reels and Messaging monetization, easy comps, and increasing Advantage+ adoption." We view TJX as a market share gainer that is well positioned to benefit from trade-down and reiterate our Buy rating.
Persons: Ebrahim Poonawala, Wells, Poonawala, BofA, Lorraine Hutchinson, TJ Maxx, Hutchinson, TJX, Justin Post, BLK Organizations: Bank of America, CNBC, Meta, TJX Companies, Investor, Facebook Locations: Bank, Blackrock, Wells Fargo, Basel
Tuesday Bank of America is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a call at 8:30 a.m. Morgan Stanley is set to report earnings in the premarket, with a conference call slated for 9:30 a.m. Wednesday Goldman Sachs is set to report earnings before the market opens, followed by a call at 9:30 a.m. Tesla is set to report earnings after the close, with a call slated for 5:30 p.m. What history shows: Netflix earnings have exceeded earnings expectations in seven of the last 10 quarters, FactSet data shows.
Persons: Wells, Keith Horowitz, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, BofA's Ebrahim Poonawala, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Marcus, Goldman, UAL, Leslie Josephs, Scott Kirby's, Tesla, Toni Sacconaghi, NFLX, AAL Organizations: Tesla, Netflix, United Airlines, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Tuesday Bank of America, Refinitiv, CNBC, Bank of America, Citi, Goldman, IBM, Thursday, Airlines, Northeast U.S, JetBlue, Northeast Alliance Locations: America, Wells Fargo, Newark, Northeast
JPMorgan Chase — The Wall Street heavyweight added 1.2% in premarket trading after an upgrade from Jefferies to buy from hold on Tuesday. U.S. Bancorp — Shares of the Minnesota-based bank gained 2.2% following an upgrade to buy from neutral by Bank of America. 3M — Shares rose nearly 2% in premarket trading following an upgrade to neutral from underperform by Bank of America. Shares of Zions fell 1.5% in premarket trading, while Truist's were down 1%. The biotech company on Monday said the pricing of its underwritten public offering, of 20 million shares of common stock, would be at $7.50 per share.
Persons: New York John F, Piper Sandler, Thomas Champion, JPMorgan Chase, Ebrahim Poonawala, Wells Fargo, Jefferies, Truist's, Iovance Biotherapeutics, , Jesse Pound, Alex Harring, Samantha Subin, Brian Evans, Sarah Min, Michael Bloom Organizations: JetBlue Airways Airbus, New York, Kennedy International Airport, JetBlue Airways — JetBlue Airways, JPMorgan, Wall, Jefferies, U.S . Bancorp, Bank of America, Bancorp, Amazon Web Services, Prime, Zions Bancorp Locations: New, USA, U.S, Minnesota, underperform
Pioneer Natural bought Parsley Energy at an 8% premium. Devon Energy bought WPX Energy at a 3% premium. Bilson points to Yellen last week highlighting a likely decline in earnings when banks report second-quarter earnings next month. That's already reflected in plenty of well-known banks "now trading with mid-single digit forward EPS multiples" as they are suddenly forced to pay more for their deposits, Bilson wrote. There are other hurdles standing in the way of bank deals, Bank of America analysts led by Ebrahim Poonawala said Monday.
Persons: Janet Yellen, there'll, Don Bilson, Gordon Haskett, Bilson, Ebrahim Poonawala, dealmaking, Poonawala, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First, Federal Reserve, Dominion, Chevron, Noble Energy, ConocoPhillips, Concho Resources, Energy, Devon Energy, WPX Energy, Yellen, Bank of America, Regulators, U.S . Department of Justice, Federal Trade Commission, MTM Locations: U.S, Wall, Silicon, Toronto, Concho
M & T Bank is well positioned for a downturn and is a bargain for investors looking to take advantage of its selloff this year, Bank of America said in a note Thursday. Regional banks have been slammed since the banking crisis began in March with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. While M & T Bank isn't immune to headwinds from worsening credit quality, rising fund costs and increased regulation, its management team is operating from a position of strength, Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said. "In an industry where market share consolidation (organic or via M & A) is likely to continue, we view the bank as a relative winner," Poonawala said. Shares are trading at 7.7 times price-to-earnings for 2023 and 7.9 times for 2024, he pointed out.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBoA's Ebrahim Poonawala expects stability to return to regional banking mid-termEbrahim Poonawala, BoA Securities banking analyst, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss Bank of America resuming a buy rating on some regional banks.
The latest drop for regional bank shares is causing some Wall Street analysts to back away from their recommendations on the stocks, even if they still believe in the underlying fundamentals for the companies. Other regional banks also sold off, including a 19% drop for Western Alliance. The deposit update was not enough to reassure all Wall Street analysts about the health of regional banks, and there is concern that the drops in the stocks could reignite deposit flight. Meanwhile, RBC Capital Markets' analyst Jon Arfstrom stuck with his outperform rating on PacWest, but said only investors with strong stomachs should stick around. Western Alliance Another bank stock that has taken heavy loses in recent weeks is Western Alliance .
First Republic's demise was the third regional bank failure since early March, when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank folded within days of each other. There is cautious optimism on Wall Street that First Republic will be the last failure of this period. However, reports from other regional banks weren't nearly as dire, with many reporting that deposits had stabilized and were growing again. However, the failure of First Republic could cause some more turbulence, at least in the short-term, for both deposits and bank stocks. "We don't believe that regional banks are completely out of the woods," Wolfe Research chief investment strategist Chris Senyek said in a note to clients on Monday.
First Republic 's quarterly update left investors with major questions about whether the bank can repair itself after massive withdrawals, but the regional bank troubles appear to now be limited to just a small corner of the industry, according to Wall Street analysts. The troubled regional lender reported its first-quarter results Monday, showing a 40.8% drop in deposits that was steeper than analyst estimates. The bank said deposits have stabilized in recent weeks and that it was taking steps to cut expenses and shrink its balance sheet, while also exploring strategic options. Results from regional banks over the last two weeks demonstrated the stickiness of the deposit customer base. ... We expect FRC to embrace a new approach and a different business model, as it adjusts to operating with a smaller balance sheet.
The opening days of the first-quarter earnings season have spurred a sigh of relief among investors, especially when it comes to the regional banks whose future seemed seriously in doubt just a month ago. A quick glance at the early reports from the biggest regional banks show only modest deposit declines in the first quarter. One deposit drop that caught some analysts off-guard among the larger regional banks was a nearly $20 billion decline at US Bancorp , but the bank still has more than $500 billion in deposits. Longer term outlook However, the stabilized funding may not be enough for the regional bank stocks to catch up to their larger competitors, which are viewed as safer and have more diversified businesses. A potential recession could cause credit losses at regional banks in the coming months, and commercial real estate exposure is particularly concerning for investors.
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